Energy Market Report
Aug 12, 2025Recent Developments in Today’s Market
Bullish – Bearish statement provided by AEP Energy Trading
Monday August 11 – AD Hub balance-of-the-month prices moved lower after updated weekend forecasts showed cooler temperatures. That led PJM to revise peak load expectations down by more than 10 gigawatts. On the other hand, with wind generation expected to be limited on Tuesday and Wednesday, next-day peak power prices rose $29 from Friday’s close.
Friday August 8 – Power prices eased heading into the weekend as updated weather models indicated less intense heat next week. ERCOT prices continued to decline today, with no significant heat events expected in the short term.
MISO/PJM Hourly Day-Ahead LMP
Source: LMP data courtesy of MISO and PJM; used with permission
*Graphs are for illustrative purposes only; LMPs priced in Central Prevailing Time (CPT)
MISO/PJM Monthly Historical Around-the-Clock (ATC) LMP
Source: LMP data courtesy of MISO and PJM; used with permission
AD Hub Electricity vs. Henry Hub Natural Prices
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only; AD Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
Historic Trend Analysis by Commodity
AEP – DAYTON (AD) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. AD Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
AD Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2027, 86.0% indicates that the current price is lower than 14.0% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
AEP – DAYTON (AD) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
AD Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2027, 86.6% indicates that the current price is lower than 13.4% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Northern Illinois (NI) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. NI Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
NI Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2027, 71.6% indicates that the current price is lower than 28.4% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Northern Illinois (NI) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. NI Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
NI Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2027, 82.7% indicates that the current price is lower than 17.3% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.Â
Western (West) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. West Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
West Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2027, 84.2% indicates that the current price is lower than 15.8% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.Â
Western (West) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. West Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
West Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2027, 89.4% indicates that the current price is lower than 10.6% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Weather
Source: AEP Energy Supply Meteorologist
Natural Gas Storage
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
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EIA Natural Gas Storage
Working gas in storage was 3,130 Bcf as of Friday, August 1, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 7 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 137 Bcf less than last year at this time and 173 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,957 Bcf. At 3,130 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
Significant Facts
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