Energy Market Report
May 20, 2025Recent Developments in Today’s Market
Bullish – Bearish statement provided by AEP Energy Trading
May 19th, 2025 – Gas and power prices dropped to kick off the week. Cooler-than-usual weather is hanging around through the end of May, keeping demand in check. Now, Friday evening did see a bit of a spike—nearly $200 evaporated during peak hours—but that was a blip. A low wind forecast pushed Day Ahead prices up briefly, but overall, the trend is down.
May 16th, 2025 – And looking back, even with the warm temps, the market didn’t panic. Liquidations stayed tame, and prices kept sliding. Forecasts are calling for cooler weather over the next two weeks, and Texas is easing back into seasonal norms. So with no big heatwave and no major surprises, power prices are drifting lower.
MISO/PJM Hourly Day-Ahead LMP
Source: LMP data courtesy of MISO and PJM; used with permission
*Graphs are for illustrative purposes only; LMPs priced in Central Prevailing Time (CPT)
MISO/PJM Monthly Historical Around-the-Clock (ATC) LMP
Source: LMP data courtesy of MISO and PJM; used with permission
AD Hub Electricity vs. Henry Hub Natural Prices
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only; AD Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
Historic Trend Analysis by Commodity
AEP – DAYTON (AD) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. AD Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
AD Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 87.0% indicates that the current price is lower than 13.0% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
AEP – DAYTON (AD) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
AD Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 85.6% indicates that the current price is lower than 14.4% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Northern Illinois (NI) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. NI Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
NI Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 75.5% indicates that the current price is lower than 24.5% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Northern Illinois (NI) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. NI Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
NI Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 80.1% indicates that the current price is lower than 19.9% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.Â
Western (West) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. West Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
West Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2025, 85.4% indicates that the current price is lower than 14.6% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.Â
Western (West) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. West Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
West Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 85.7% indicates that the current price is lower than 14.3% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Weather
Source: AEP Energy Supply Meteorologist
Natural Gas Storage
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
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EIA Natural Gas Storage
Working gas in storage was 2,255 Bcf as of Friday, May 9, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 110 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 375 Bcf less than last year at this time and 57 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,198 Bcf. At 2,255 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
Significant Facts
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