Energy Market Report
Apr 29, 2025Recent Developments in Today’s Market
Bullish – Bearish statement provided by AEP Energy Trading
April 28th – Gas futures finally found some footing today, rallying $0.233 to close at the highest level we’ve seen in over a week. Meanwhile, the front end of the power curve took a hit after the weekend, with today’s liquidation coming in much lower than anticipated. Gas prices surged, dragging power along for the ride, though not quite as dramatically, which squeezed heat rates at the front end of the curve.
April 25th – Heading into the weekend, the front end of the power curve dipped, with no significant sustained heat expected in the coming weeks. Natural gas prices held steady today, but weak liquidations have started to put pressure on short-term prices as we move into May.
MISO/PJM Hourly Day-Ahead LMP
Source: LMP data courtesy of MISO and PJM; used with permission
*Graphs are for illustrative purposes only; LMPs priced in Central Prevailing Time (CPT)
MISO/PJM Monthly Historical Around-the-Clock (ATC) LMP
Source: LMP data courtesy of MISO and PJM; used with permission
AD Hub Electricity vs. Henry Hub Natural Prices
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only; AD Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
Historic Trend Analysis by Commodity
AEP – DAYTON (AD) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. AD Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
AD Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 77.6% indicates that the current price is lower than 22.4% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
AEP – DAYTON (AD) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
AD Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 80.7% indicates that the current price is lower than 19.3% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Northern Illinois (NI) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. NI Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
NI Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 63% indicates that the current price is lower than 37% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Northern Illinois (NI) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. NI Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
NI Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 65.5% indicates that the current price is lower than 34.5% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.Â
Western (West) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. West Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
West Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2025, 78.3% indicates that the current price is lower than 21.7% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.Â
Western (West) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. West Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
West Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 80.1% indicates that the current price is lower than 19.9% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Weather
Source: AEP Energy Supply Meteorologist
Natural Gas Storage
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Â
EIA Natural Gas Storage
Working gas in storage was 1,934 Bcf as of Friday, April 18, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 88 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 478 Bcf less than last year at this time and 44 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,978 Bcf. At 1,934 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
Significant Facts
AEP Energy does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, freedom from error, or value of any information herein. The information presented is provided “as is”, “as available”, and for informational purposes only, speaks only to events or circumstances on or before the date it is presented, and should not be construed as advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future results. AEP Energy disclaims any and all liabilities and warranties related hereto, including any obligation to update or correct the information herein. Summaries and website links included herein (collectively, “Links”) are not under AEP Energy’s control and are provided for reference only and not for commercial purposes. AEP Energy does not endorse or approve of the Links or related information and does not provide any warranty of any kind or nature related thereto. Forward-looking statements contained herein are based on forecasted or outlook information (including assumptions and estimations) but any such statements may be influenced by innumerable factors that could cause actual outcomes and results to be materially different from those anticipated. As such, these statements are subject to risks, uncertainties, fluctuating market conditions, and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from expectations and should not be relied upon. Whether or how the customer utilizes any such information is entirely its responsibility (for which it assumes the entire risk).
