Energy Market Report

Recent Developments in Today’s Market

Bullish – Bearish statement provided by AEP Energy Trading

November 18th, 2024 – Power and gas prices kicked off the week on a high note. Weather models are hinting at a chilly national pattern by the end of the 11–15-day period. This cold snap forecast sent natural gas futures soaring by 5%, pushing up prices for the rest of the year and into 2025.

November 15th, 2024 – As we headed into the weekend, power and gas prices found some support. The potential for cooler temperatures in late November helped term power prices regain some ground. Traders are keeping a close eye on weather forecasts, looking for any signs that winter is on its way.

MISO/PJM Hourly Day-Ahead LMP

Source: LMP data courtesy of MISO and PJM; used with permission


*Graphs are for illustrative purposes only; LMPs priced in Central Prevailing Time (CPT)

MISO/PJM Monthly Historical Around-the-Clock (ATC) LMP

Source: LMP data courtesy of MISO and PJM; used with permission

AD Hub Electricity vs. Henry Hub Natural Prices

Source: AEP Energy internal estimates


*Graph is for illustrative purposes only; AD Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)

Historic Trend Analysis by Commodity

AEP – DAYTON (AD) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)

Source: AEP Energy internal estimates

*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. AD Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)

AD Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis

*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 72.2% indicates that the current price is lower than 27.8% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.

AEP – DAYTON (AD) Hub On-Peak

Source: AEP Energy internal estimates

AD Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis

*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 73.5% indicates that the current price is lower than 26.5% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.

Northern Illinois (NI) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)

Source: AEP Energy internal estimates

*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. NI Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)

NI Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis

*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 70.9% indicates that the current price is lower than 29.1% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.

Northern Illinois (NI) Hub On-Peak

Source: AEP Energy internal estimates

*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. NI Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)

NI Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis

*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 73.5% indicates that the current price is lower than 26.5% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017. 

Western (West) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)

Source: AEP Energy internal estimates

*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. West Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)

West Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis

*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2025, 80.4% indicates that the current price is lower than 19.6% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017. 

Western (West) Hub On-Peak

Source: AEP Energy internal estimates

*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. West Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)

West Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis

*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 82.3% indicates that the current price is lower than 17.7% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.

Weather

Source: AEP Energy Supply Meteorologist

Natural Gas Storage

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
 

EIA Natural Gas Storage

Working gas in storage was 3,972 Bcf as of Friday, November 8, 2024, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 41 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 156 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 226 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,746 Bcf. At 3,972 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.

Significant Facts

 

 

 

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