Energy Market Report
May 6, 2025Recent Developments in Today’s Market
Bullish – Bearish statement provided by AEP Energy Trading
May 5th, 2025 – Power prices ticked higher today, and here’s why: A warmer weather forecast for mid-May has traders eyeing increased demand. Add to that some strong real-time liquidations—yes, those are still going—and you’ve got upward pressure on the market. Natural gas? It rallied. Power followed, though not quite as enthusiastically. The result? Compressed heat rates at the front end of the curve.
May 2nd, 2025 – Warmer model runs—especially in the eastern PJM—caused bidding up of power prices. Real-time liquidations added fuel to the fire. And with natural gas prices climbing, term markets found some support too.
MISO/PJM Hourly Day-Ahead LMP
Source: LMP data courtesy of MISO and PJM; used with permission
*Graphs are for illustrative purposes only; LMPs priced in Central Prevailing Time (CPT)
MISO/PJM Monthly Historical Around-the-Clock (ATC) LMP
Source: LMP data courtesy of MISO and PJM; used with permission
AD Hub Electricity vs. Henry Hub Natural Prices
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only; AD Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
Historic Trend Analysis by Commodity
AEP – DAYTON (AD) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. AD Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
AD Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 86.0% indicates that the current price is lower than 14.0% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
AEP – DAYTON (AD) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
AD Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 86.4% indicates that the current price is lower than 13.6% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Northern Illinois (NI) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. NI Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
NI Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 71.0% indicates that the current price is lower than 29.0% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Northern Illinois (NI) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. NI Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
NI Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 80.0% indicates that the current price is lower than 20.0% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Western (West) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. West Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
West Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2025, 85.2% indicates that the current price is lower than 14.8% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Western (West) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. West Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
West Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 86.4% indicates that the current price is lower than 13.6% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Weather
Source: AEP Energy Supply Meteorologist
Natural Gas Storage
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
EIA Natural Gas Storage
Working gas in storage was 2,041 Bcf as of Friday, April 25, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 107 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 435 Bcf less than last year at this time and 5 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,036 Bcf. At 2,041 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
Significant Facts
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