Energy Market Report
Jun 3, 2025Recent Developments in Today’s Market
Bullish – Bearish statement provided by AEP Energy Trading
June 2nd, 2025 – The front end of the power curve was down due to soft real-time liquidations. But further out on the curve? That’s where the action was. Natural gas rallied more than 20 cents for the balance of the year, and that gave longer-dated power prices a lift. Weak liquidations or not, gas was the driver.
May 30th, 2025 – We wrapped up the week with June power prices ticking higher. Why? Forecasts are calling for warmer weather in the 6-to-15-day window. But not everything was heating up. The front of the curve slipped on soft cash prices, and out in the longer-dated contracts? Not much movement. Volume was light—exceptionally light.
MISO/PJM Hourly Day-Ahead LMP
Source: LMP data courtesy of MISO and PJM; used with permission
*Graphs are for illustrative purposes only; LMPs priced in Central Prevailing Time (CPT)
MISO/PJM Monthly Historical Around-the-Clock (ATC) LMP
Source: LMP data courtesy of MISO and PJM; used with permission
AD Hub Electricity vs. Henry Hub Natural Prices
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only; AD Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
Historic Trend Analysis by Commodity
AEP – DAYTON (AD) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. AD Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
AD Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 84.6% indicates that the current price is lower than 15.4% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
AEP – DAYTON (AD) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
AD Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 69.2% indicates that the current price is lower than 30.8% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Northern Illinois (NI) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. NI Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
NI Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 71.5% indicates that the current price is lower than 28.5% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Northern Illinois (NI) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. NI Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
NI Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 80.0% indicates that the current price is lower than 20.0% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Western (West) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. West Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
West Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2025, 83.7% indicates that the current price is lower than 16.3% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Western (West) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. West Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
West Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 85.7% indicates that the current price is lower than 14.3% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Weather
Source: AEP Energy Supply Meteorologist
Natural Gas Storage
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
EIA Natural Gas Storage
Working gas in storage was 2,476 Bcf as of Friday, May 23, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 101 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 316 Bcf less than last year at this time and 93 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,383 Bcf. At 2,476 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
Significant Facts
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