Energy Market Report
Jul 15, 2025Recent Developments in Today’s Market
Bullish – Bearish statement provided by AEP Energy Trading
Monday July 15 – Balance-of-the-month power prices moved higher following the weekend, as updated weather models introduced additional cooling demand in the 6–15-day forecast. In contrast, seasonable temperature expectations across ERCOT for the remainder of July contributed to a decline in near-term power prices. Natural gas prices increased by more than $0.13 for the balance of the year, while longer-term power prices also ended the day higher.
Friday July 11 – Power and natural gas prices remained relatively stable today, with minimal movement observed. A cooler weather forecast for mid-month in the Midwest and Northeast contributed to the subdued activity. Natural gas prices were largely unchanged, while power prices showed mixed trends across the curve, trading on very low volume.
MISO/PJM Hourly Day-Ahead LMP
Source: LMP data courtesy of MISO and PJM; used with permission
*Graphs are for illustrative purposes only; LMPs priced in Central Prevailing Time (CPT)
MISO/PJM Monthly Historical Around-the-Clock (ATC) LMP
Source: LMP data courtesy of MISO and PJM; used with permission
AD Hub Electricity vs. Henry Hub Natural Prices
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only; AD Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
Historic Trend Analysis by Commodity
AEP – DAYTON (AD) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. AD Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
AD Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2027, 88.4% indicates that the current price is lower than 11.6% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
AEP – DAYTON (AD) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
AD Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2027, 89.00% indicates that the current price is lower than 11.00% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Northern Illinois (NI) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. NI Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
NI Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2027, 77.6% indicates that the current price is lower than 22.4% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Northern Illinois (NI) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. NI Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
NI Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2027, 86.2% indicates that the current price is lower than 13.8% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Western (West) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. West Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
West Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2027, 88.4% indicates that the current price is lower than 11.6% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Western (West) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. West Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
West Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2027, 92.8% indicates that the current price is lower than 7.2% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Weather
Source: AEP Energy Supply Meteorologist
Natural Gas Storage
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
EIA Natural Gas Storage
Working gas in storage was 3,006 Bcf as of Friday, July 4, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 53 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 184 Bcf less than last year at this time and 173 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,833 Bcf. At 3,006 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
Significant Facts
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