Energy Market Report
May 13, 2025Recent Developments in Today’s Market
Bullish – Bearish statement provided by AEP Energy Trading
May 12th – Gas prices dropped nearly 15 cents. That, plus a forecast calling for near-normal temperatures later this month, put some downward pressure on power markets—especially at the front of the curve. But don’t get too comfortable. Starting tomorrow, Texas is looking at some serious heat—well above average. And with wind generation expected to dip Thursday and Friday, traders pushed balweek prices sharply higher.
May 9th – Natural gas rallied—up just over 20 cents, hitting a one-month high. Power markets followed, with most of the action again at the front of the curve. Weather models turned up the heat—literally. Triple-digit temps are now in the forecast for next week. That sent cash power soaring, with balweek prices jumping more than $25 on peak.
MISO/PJM Hourly Day-Ahead LMP
Source: LMP data courtesy of MISO and PJM; used with permission
*Graphs are for illustrative purposes only; LMPs priced in Central Prevailing Time (CPT)
MISO/PJM Monthly Historical Around-the-Clock (ATC) LMP
Source: LMP data courtesy of MISO and PJM; used with permission
AD Hub Electricity vs. Henry Hub Natural Prices
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only; AD Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
Historic Trend Analysis by Commodity
AEP – DAYTON (AD) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. AD Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
AD Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 87.1% indicates that the current price is lower than 12.9% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
AEP – DAYTON (AD) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
AD Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 87.0% indicates that the current price is lower than 13.0% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Northern Illinois (NI) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. NI Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
NI Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 73.9% indicates that the current price is lower than 26.1% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Northern Illinois (NI) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. NI Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
NI Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 81.8% indicates that the current price is lower than 18.2% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Western (West) Hub Around-the-Clock (ATC)
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. West Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
West Hub ATC Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2025, 86.3% indicates that the current price is lower than 13.7% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Western (West) Hub On-Peak
Source: AEP Energy internal estimates
*Graph is for illustrative purposes only. West Hub priced in Eastern Standard Time (EST)
West Hub On-Peak Forward Price Trend Analysis
*Percentile rank from historicals represents the relation of current price and how it compares to historical pricing. For Calendar 2026, 88.6% indicates that the current price is lower than 11.4% of historical pricing dating back to July 2017.
Weather
Source: AEP Energy Supply Meteorologist
Natural Gas Storage
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
EIA Natural Gas Storage
Working gas in storage was 2,145 Bcf as of Friday, May 2, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 104 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 412 Bcf less than last year at this time and 30 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,115 Bcf. At 2,145 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
Significant Facts
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